The EU replaced its safeguard with something permanent

The steel safeguard that governed exports into the European Union since 2018 expired on 30 June. In its place, Regulation (EU) 2026/1384 took effect on 1 July, adopted on 17 June and published in the Official Journal on 24 June. This is not a temporary trade remedy with a sunset attached. It is a five-year framework running to 2031.

What changed

  • The total duty-free import quota falls by about 47%, to 18.3 million tonnes a year, measured against the 2024 reference system.

  • The out-of-quota duty doubles from 25% to 50%, so anything shipped beyond an allocation costs twice what it did before.

  • Around half the quota, roughly 9.15 million tonnes, is reserved for countries that have or could have a free trade agreement with the EU. EEA members Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein sit outside the quota system.

The part that started this month

  • A melt and pour rule traces where steel was actually melted and poured rather than where it was last processed. The Commission specified the evidentiary requirements on 31 August, and the documentation became mandatory from 1 October.

  • Quota distribution for July to December runs under a separate implementing regulation. Allocations beyond December come later.

Where India sits

Analysis of the original proposal put India's quota cut at roughly 35%, against the 47% average, and India has asked the EU for relief while trade agreement talks continue. The practical position is that an Indian exporter now competes for a smaller allocation, faces a 50% penalty beyond it, and must document where the metal was melted. Quota exhaustion has caught exporters out in earlier periods, and it matters far more when the overflow rate is 50% rather than 25%.

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