Three-month LME copper traded around ₹13,03,000 per tonne (USD 13,572) on June 10, close to its all-time high. Copper has gained nearly 40% over the past year, its strongest run since 2009.

The immediate trigger is a US tariff decision. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is due to report to the White House by the end of June on whether to expand Section 232 tariffs to refined copper. Traders have been pulling copper into the US ahead of the ruling.

The stockpiling has split the market. US COMEX warehouses hold a record 450,000 tonnes, about half of all global exchange stock. Meanwhile, inventories in London and Shanghai have fallen by more than 55% since last August.

That imbalance leaves Indian and Asian manufacturers paying high regional premiums while the rest of the metal sits in US storage. The LME cash-to-three-month spread is in deep backwardation, a signal of physical scarcity.

Supply growth is fragile. Chile's Cochilco expects global mine output to rise just 0.5% in 2026. Disruptions at Grasberg in Indonesia, Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC, and El Teniente in Chile stretched through the year. Some mines will not recover their 2024 output until 2027.

Demand is climbing the other way. Jefferies projects an annual supply deficit averaging 491,000 tonnes through 2030. Each AI data centre uses 5,000 to 50,000 tonnes of copper.

Copper buyers face a tight market regardless of the US ruling. Forecasts for end-2026 range from USD 11,500 to USD 15,000 per tonne. The cheap copper era has closed.