The Q4 forecasts are in, and they point up
JP Morgan Global Research puts copper at $14,800 a tonne in the fourth quarter, citing sulphur shortages, tight mine supply, an industrial boom, and the threat of US tariffs. Aluminium is forecast at $3,800 for the third quarter and $3,700 for the fourth. Steel gets no single number, because the forecast now splits by region.
What the numbers say
Copper leads physical markets too. Scrap market summaries at the end of August put copper well ahead of aluminium and steel on momentum, with the flagged risk being profit-taking rather than a change in fundamentals.
Aluminium carries a projected primary deficit of 1.7 million tonnes for 2026, described as an invisible shortfall working its way through the system, driven by China's self-imposed 45 million tonne capacity ceiling.
Steel stays region-dependent. Tariffs hold prices elevated in the US and EU while China's property slump pushes them down, which is why a single global steel figure stopped being useful this year.
What sits behind the aluminium number
The market outside China now leans on Chinese product exports to backfill tonnes lost to Middle East disruption.
Emirates Global Aluminium is spending $400 million to restore its Al Taweelah complex and targets pre-war output in the first quarter of 2027, which places the largest single block of lost supply beyond this forecast window.
Why the two behave differently
Copper's tightness is cyclical and policy-linked, so it can unwind quickly if tariffs settle or positioning turns. Aluminium's is structural: a capacity ceiling and a damaged smelter do not resolve on a headline. That distinction matters more than either forecast number, because it decides whether a price spike is something to wait out or something to plan around.