The tariff wall is now visible in the price of a coil
Canada's counter-tariffs took effect at 12:01 this morning, applying rates of 15%, 25% and 50% to 874 tariff items covering an estimated C$27.6 billion of US imports, mirroring US rates line for line. Steel was the largest single target, covering C$10.17 billion of 2025 imports: C$4.57 billion in basic and semi-finished steel at the 50% rate, and C$5.59 billion in downstream products. Duties on American steel and aluminium doubled to 25%. Goods already in transit this morning are exempt.
What the prices are doing
Steel Market Update's US hot-rolled coil average reached $1,205 a short ton on September 3, up from $930 on January 6, a rise of about 30% in eight months. Plate averaged $1,395.
Nucor's consumer spot price reached $1,185, with mill negotiability at close to a five-year low, meaning buyers have little room to push back.
Iron ore fines at 62% iron traded at $97.72 a tonne on September 2, holding the $93 to $100 range since June, so producers are getting the higher steel price without a matching rise in raw material cost.
What is already moving
Canada drew 42.9% of its steel and iron imports from the US in the first half of 2026, worth $3.86 billion, so the surtax lands on a large existing flow.
US steel imports fell 26% by volume between January and May against the same period last year.
Talks remain collapsed with no further negotiations scheduled, and a threatened 50% US tariff on Canadian goods is set for January 1.
Why this reaches here
North America is becoming a closed and expensive market at the same time. Tonnage that would have crossed that border now looks for somewhere else to go, and open markets absorb the redirection. India has already seen that pattern this year in its import numbers. The premium in American coil is real, but so is the wall around it.