Aluminium prices hit $3,544 per metric ton on March 3, 2026, the highest since March 2022, after Qatar shut down its Qatalum smelter (648,000 tons/year capacity).
Why it happened: Iranian drone attacks cut gas supplies to Qatar's LNG and aluminium plants. The Strait of Hormuz is 90% blocked. Ships cannot export Gulf aluminium. Raw material shipments have been diverted entirely away from the Gulf.
The Numbers That Matter
Current prices: $3,394-$3,544/ton (up 22% year-over-year)
Analyst forecast if disruptions continue: $4,000/ton
Gulf aluminium stuck: 8% of global supply (6M+ tons annually)
Qatalum restart timeline: 6-12 months minimum
Who's Affected
Auto components (chassis, body panels, engine parts)
Aircraft and aerospace
Electronics and appliances
Packaging and construction materials
India's Position
India is less exposed. Hindalco and Vedanta supply most of the domestic demand. India imports less than 1% of aluminium from Qatar.
But: If you export finished goods to Europe or the US, your customers are scrambling for aluminium. Their production schedules and your orders could be disrupted.
What's Next
Best case: Conflict de-escalates in days, shipping resumes in 2-3 weeks, prices stabilize.
Worst case: Strait stays blocked for weeks, prices hit $4,000/ton, and severe Western supply shortages.
Most likely: Disruptions last 2-4 weeks, prices stay elevated through Q2 2026.